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The Confidence Map:
Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity

A groundbreaking framework for making better decisions by understanding – and mastering – confidence.

What does our desire for certainty and control have to do with our decision-making? According to behavioral economics pioneer Peter Atwater, the answer is simple: everything.

In The Confidence Map, Atwater explores the hidden role of confidence in the choices we make, and why events described as being unprecedented are often entirely predictable—if we know what to look for.

Using compelling stories from the past and present, Atwater shows readers how to apply the same tools he teaches the world’s leading institutional investors, corporations, and policymakers to help them make sense of complex situations and optimize strategy.

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“A rare and beautiful look at what happens in our heads when we try to make sense of the world.”

Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money
Michele Wucker

“Insightful and original, The Confidence Map explores how our feelings of certainty and control affect every choice we make and every risk we take. Readers will use this fresh perspective to become more resilient in the face of uncertainty.”

Michele Wucker, Author of The Gray Rhino and You Are What You Risk

“While Malcom Gladwell’s Blink powerfully argued that intuitions are important, it doesn’t offer much guidance on how to hone them. Atwater fills that gap.”

Benjamin Ho, Professor of Economics, Vassar College; author of Why Trust Matters
General Stanley A. McChrystal, U.S. Army (Ret.)

“An approachable, entertaining guide to the daunting challenge of leadership.”

General Stanley A. McChrystal, U.S. Army (Ret.), Author of Team of Teams and Risk
Rod Wood

“Simple and complex at the same time. I encourage anyone struggling with decision making to read it and use it.”

Rod Wood, President and CEO, Detroit Lions

“Superb insights on the role that confidence plays in predicting outcomes.”

Michael Powell, Former FCC chairman; CEO of NCTA – The Internet & Television Association
Lydia Saad

“Mind-blowing. It’s hard to believe that such profound insights have been hiding in plain sight for so long. Now that Atwater has switched on the light, it’s impossible to unsee the vital role that confidence plays in, well, everything.”

Lydia Saad, Director of U.S. Social Research, Gallup